WP1 | Creation of Multi Level Climate Change Scenarios


The WP1 « Creation of Multi Level Climate Change Scenarios » is coordinated by Xavier FETTWEIS (FNRS Research Associate, PhD, Head of the Laboratory of Climatology at University of Liège) and Sébastien DOUTRELOUP (PhD, post-doc researcher dedicated to the WP1).

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he aim of this WP1 is to simulate present (1980-2014) and future (2015-2100) climate change driven evolution over Belgium forced by the last IPCC scenarios (CMIP6) by focusing on the evolution of heat waves.

The MAR model (for “Modèle Atmosphéric Régional” in french) developed by the Laboratory of Climatology in the University of Liège is used to downscale the new reanalysis ERA5 and threegeneral circulation models from the CMIP6 database by selecting those last ones among, the best ones representing the current climate over the whole Belgium territory.

One of the most pronounced impacts of global warming on Belgium will be the increase of heat waves. Knowing that these heat waves will lead to an increase in electricity consumption via a rise in demand for refrigeration (especially in buildings).a focus will be made on the climatic evolution of heat waves in the main cities of Belgium.

All the MAR outputs (forced by reanalysis and global climate models from each climate change scenarios) will be available in an open-source data set covering the whole Belgian territory.

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